McDonalds July Sales Sizzling Hot

McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) reported a 4.3% increase in same store sales for July. Same store sales are considered the most important comparison statistic for multi unit restaurant chains and retailers. Here in the US, Same store sales rose 2.6%, which is being attributed to the new line of McCafé Espresso-based coffee drinks. McDonalds stock closed today at $56.02 a share, significantly off the 3 month high of $60.99 on June 3rd.

McDonalds is now switching advertising emphasis back towards value and meal combinations, although the “McCafé Monday” promotion that ran in July through August 3rd, giving away samples of specific coffee drinks on Mondays, turned out to be a good traffic driver, according to anecdotal evidence. The new launch now is 1/3 pound Angus Beef burgers, with a higher price point that McDonalds traditionally hits. The “Any size fountain drink for $1” has been a good component to the value message.

While restaurants overall are struggling in the economic climate, fast feeders, and McDonalds in particular, have acquitted themselves well. Americans love to go out to eat, and it seems that the casual dining houses are feeling the brunt of the crisis in consumer confidence. McDonald turning in a 2.6% same store sales increase in the US market, when the US GDP shrank 1% in the second quarter, shows that the Golden Arches continue to be a family destination and place for value conscious consumers to go.

Coffee Wars: Starbucks Moves into Alcohol

Starbuck’s (NASDAQ:SBUX) is testing serving alcohol at a couple of locations, to try out the idea as a way for increasing the later daypart business. Curiously, they are changing the name of the first outlet to “15th Ave. Coffee & Tea, inspired by Starbucks.” I guess the question remains what has been posed before; how badly do you need to beat a brand to destroy it from the inside?

Are Instant Coffee and Alcohol Brand Builders?

While the expansion of business in a weaker time period is always a bonus, there seems to be less respect for the core brand within Starbuck’s than there is from the outside. First, the instant coffee brand -VIA™ rollout, and now trying to be a limited-option bar in the evening.

Not Addressing Menu Overhaul

Actually the alcohol idea isn’t a bad one, but it would make more sense to include it as an overall remaking of the Starbuck’s menu. They seem to be running from the challenge being put forth by the QSR’s, McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) and Dunkin Donuts (Private), in particular, but all the big chains are jumping on the coffee bandwagon.

The way to get solid revenue increases driving at Starbucks is to commit to providing a viable light meal option to complement the beverage business, and this is something they seem reluctant to do. If Starbucks can’t drive revenue by coming up with a way make going there about more than just a side pastry or cookie, they lose the revenue war to the QSR’s challenge in the long run.

Fast Food Chains Challenging on Coffee

While Starbucks doesn’t need a “Dollar Menu” or to put french fryers in, a feature deli-style sandwich that goes with either a cold coffee drink or the newly-introduced beer or wine would seem to be a smart positioning move, and give them a chance at increasing per-ticket rings and putting more revenue into the later dayparts they are trying to improve.

Starbuck’s is running from what made it a premier brand ands a ubiquitous presence in all but the smallest of markets.

When you have a big ship to steer, you can’t do it with a gentle push, you need to give it a good shove. The QSR’s have issued a challenge to Starbucks, if they don’t make a solid move in response to come up with a light meal alternative, they will lose the revenue war down the road.

Fast Food is a Recession Beater for Families

Source Article: Fast Food Fading? (Forbes) Click Here For Article

Ramifications

1) Fast Feeders branching into less "Traditional QSR" Fare

2) Chains looking to upscale ticket

3) Can entertain a family inexpensively

Analysis:

Fast Food Restaurant Chains are moving through the recession in fine fashion. McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) is in fine shape regardless of what the stock price reacted against.

McDonalds has made a well-publicized foray into Gourmet coffees, stepping on Starbuck's (NASDAQ:SBUX) toes, and had added a $3.99 burger, a premium Angus Beef burger, to the menu. Wendy's (NYSE:WEN) has added "Chicken Bowls" and other chains are trying less traditional QSR items at a higher per unit price point.

The casual dining chains, Friday's and Applebee’s in particular, have aggressively promoted price competition to keep consumers coming through the door, but the QSR's are coming "Up" to meet them. It's going to be hard to break the consumer of the "2 for $20" (Applebee’s) or the $5 Dollar Entrees (Fridays) that were running in heavy rotation through the early summer.

The QSR's recognize that consumers are "Trading down" on entertainment dollars, which is why they are adding "Quality" items at a slightly higher price. They are reaching towards the casual dining houses in menu quality perception, and catering to the spenders in the family, Mom and Dad.

While the value menu is what McDonalds is famous for right now, the advertising is going to the McCafe line of coffees, and they are going beverage promotion with the $1 Fountain drink promo. It's a smart and two tiered approach, and whether the benefits show up right now or a bit later, the entire QSR segment has acquitted themselves well in the recessionary consumer environment.

As long as the economic future remains uncertain, the fast feeders will be the choice for families "Feeling the squeeze" but still wanting to go out,

Coffee Wars: Is Starbuck’s in McTroublé?

This article was written for the Examiner.com

Can Starbuck’s maintain in the face of competition from McDonald’s, Dunkin Donuts?

Summer is a great time for a cold coffee drink. This year, consumers have more choices than ever before. McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and Dunkin Donuts (Dunkin Brands - Franchisor - Privately Held) pushing coffee products means it could be a long, hot summer for Starbuck’s (NASDAQ: SBUX).

The McDonalds marketing push for the McCafé line of cold coffee drinks, and their upgraded premium coffee program could really cause a shift in served coffee consumption patterns in McDonalds favor. Even more outlets than Starbuck’s and a lower price point could put a real dent in Starbucks revenue.

Starbucks rollout of an instant coffee product this spring is a puzzler to most watchers, and they are really pushing it in stores. This isn’t a competitive response to a larger and deeper pocketed competitor crowding your market. The sputtering food choice upgrade program hasn’t helped Starbucks to craft a response to QSR encroachment into their space.

Dunkin Donuts has been running a campaign featuring cold coffee drinks and also a renewed emphasis on doughnuts. They are a large store count (6,300+) competitor that Starbucks needs be aware of also.

So as the summer coffee war heats up, the question is: Is Starbucks in McTroublé? The consumers will vote with their wallets this summer, and then we will see.

McDonald's Beverage Business a Fountain of Profits

Source Article: McDonald’s Ends Pepsi Test in Victory for Coca-Cola | www.bloomberg.com (view article)

Ramifications:

1) Bottled Drinks would make McDonalds Beverage Business More Complicated, less Profitable.

2) Bottled Drinks would need to be Priced at Premium in order to maintain margins - Away from "Value" Image

3) McDonalds and Coca-Cola Linked in Consumer's minds - Iconic American Consumer Brands.

Analysis:

McDonald's testing Branded Bottled Drinks in Stores is an unnecessary complication to a vital high profit product line.

Being rooted in Convenience Retailing, any store owner will tell you the profit picture and inventory turns between Fountain products and individually packaged beverage portions is night and day. If we could only sell fountain, we would. McDonald's can, and that's what they should do.

An increased selection for the customer means decreased inventory turns for you. The availability of packaged beverages isn't going increase visits to McDonald's in any significant way, but it will reduce the margins in their drink business. To sell a unit of packaged drinks at a competitive price, they will be in the 35% to 40% GM area, versus an 80% plus margin on fountain drinks, even with free refills. Fountain drinks that are received at the drive through are even better. No refills there.

No Inventory to stock and reorder, no additional refrigeration equipment and energy consumed... Fountain is the way to go in McDonald's.

In terms of a Pepsi-Coke fountain competition, which wasn't in play, Coke has a large and dominant presence in the field. To switch to Pepsi doesn't seem to make any sense. What competitive advantage would it give McDonald's?

McDonald's should stick with fountain drinks and keep the profit formula they have used to achieve great operating results over the years.

The free, low-cost, self-service refills fit into the value image very well, and makes for a good complement to the packaged meals with sandwich, fries, and the fountain drink.

McDonald’s is a chain for the times

Source Article: McDonald’s Profit Falls as U.S. Dollar Hurts Sales | www.bloomberg.com (See article)

Implicatons:

1) McDonald’s Global reach and Marketing muscle will allow increased share

2) Both operating profits and Revenues will continue to grow.

3) The “Wal-Mart” of Fast feeders – low-cost and well-run

Commentary:

While McDonalds profit may have fallen vs. last year’s quarter, they were up in terms of income from operations. Revenue was up, and the future looks bright. McDonalds, much like Wal-Mart has itself positioned to ride through the current economic climate and emerge stronger financially and holding even greater market share.

The “Dollar menu” has forced all the other players to feature dollar and value items, and upped the ante on efficiency and volume. The Wednesday and Sunday .49 Hamburger and .59 Cheeseburger promotions shows the muscle the McDonalds system can deliver. Even as they feature value, they are grabbing share and driving traffic into the restaurants.

The whole “Strength of the dollar” decreasing profits, while true, is a macro situation that McDonalds cannot control. As long as they continue to operate in the manner they are now, they are going to be a consistent and dependable earner who can continue to grow their business.

Consumers are looking for relief from the daily drumbeat of economic downturn news; unemployment and layoffs soaring, auto firms on the ropes, Wall Street bailout questions… here’s the antidote for middle America, and McDonald’s has it.

You can still easily feed a family of four at McDonalds for under $20.00, even if no one is taking advantage of the value items. If you’re watching your money closely, it can be done for $10.00/$12.00. The kids might not get those Happy Meal toys at that expenditure level, but you’re still having dinner out.

The time of reckoning is here for most families in the working class; they may not be facing economic disaster, but there is very little comfort in what the future holds at the moment. Most people have little confidence that things are going to rapidly improve with the nation’s economy.

That’s where an iconic brand and offering like McDonalds can make a big market share move through operational efficiency and value instead of fighting a marketing war with advertising dollars and giveaways.

Burger King, Wendy’s and the Yum brands are all offering value. Wendy’s 99 cent menu was really the first of these regular value offerings way, way back, but the store count and ability to deliver food at a low cost that McDonalds can offer will mean the others can’t be the driver in this competitive sector.

Denny’s Grand Slam giveaway was just completed an hour or so ago; while it’s tough to beat a “Free” offer, it’s not a sustainable competitive position, just a promotional gimmick. McDonalds can sit at the value menu prices as along as it needs to, and continue to earn just fine.