November retail sales drop shouldn't be a surprise to most retailers.

This analysis was written for Gerson Lehrman News and published December 5

Implications:
1) Credit restrictions are going to inevitably lead to lower retail sales.
2) Economic news and what they experience has consumers nervous
3) Sales made at discount prices reduce top-line revenues, and"Super-Specials" on Black Friday create expectations of better sales.

Analysis:
The news is brutal everyday...Country in recession since beginning of 2008. (That wasn't news to the average person). General Motors(NYS:GM) looking at bankruptcy protection. Circuit City(NYS:CC) and Linens N Things in bankruptcy. Auto dealers closing all over the country. Foreclosure crisis. Global Economic slowdown.

Even the breathtaking decline in energy prices and commodities in general are a sideshow to the unrelenting economic gloom.

The US government seems to making up the "Bailout" or "Recovery Package" as they go along, as each measure they enact seems to have negligible effect on the overall problem of a severe economic slowdown.

While we're all sure that everyone at Treasury, Commerce, the Fed and all the worldwide authorities are doing their best, the overall impression to most people I know is the world governments and agencies don't have a clue as to how wide and deep the problems are.

That being said, the fact that overall sales in US retail are down in only single digits should be a positive, not a negative, sign that the US economy is more resilient and the US consumer tougher and less risk-averse than the institutions that are the causing the pain.

If there's no consumer credit, car sales will suffer. Even more importantly, if the credit score criteria for getting an auto loan stay the same going forward, the ready pool of automobile buyers will be smaller, leading to a smaller new car market.

Each and every step of this process shouldn't be reported as a fresh "disaster". It's a systemic problem.

If the average consumer can't get credit readily, home furnishing and large-ticket electronics purchases are going to fall. It's not a problem with the retailers or offerings, it's a matter of the mechanism most people use to purchase larger-ticket household items is broken. As much as US homeowners love flat-screen TV's, they love eating and caring for their families more.

So, when earnings for furniture retailers and manufacturers come out, it's not a new story of another category falling apart; it's just a continuation of the consumer credit crisis, same as the auto sales drop.

Jewelry companies are reporting lower sales, again, no surprise, just another manifestation of shrinking consumer credit. So when strip centers and malls start losing retail tenants and commercial mortgages become the next crisis, it's still the same story.

The US consumer should be congratulated for what they've been able to accomplish, even in this very tough economic time. They are trading Macy's( :M) for Wal-Mart(NYS:WMT), auto parts chains should be picking up business while the dealers starve, the "Rent-to-Own" businesses (Aarons, Rent-a-Center) will be busier than the Rooms-To-Go or the Ethan Allen(NYS:ETH) store.

The consumer will adapt and survive, but it's time for a real, comprehensive program that people can have confidence in.