Stocks Dive as Consumer Spending Worries Mount

Stocks plunged Friday, erasing all of the previous day's big gains, as a drop in consumer spending made investors nervous the recovery momentum can’t be sustained.

Major stock indexes tumbled more than 2 percent in afternoon trading, including the Dow Jones industrials, which gave back all of Thursday's 200-point gain, and dropped an addition 50 points. Big decliners were banks, energy and materials companies. As stocks fell, investors moved to safer assets like the dollar and Treasury bonds. The decline in stocks came after a rally yesterday, based on a 3.5% GDP growth number.

Personal Spending Falls
Investors sold stocks after the Labor Department said personal spending fell 0.5 percent in September. This number was about where the forecasts said it would be, but it was the largest drop in the last three quarters and followed a 1.3 percent jump in August that was led by the government's “Cash for Clunkers” car rebate program, which was very popular.

The report casts doubt on the economy's recovery, which many economists fear has been primarily inflated by government stimulus programs. With no bounce in consumer spending, which makes up a major part of the U.S. economy, investors are worrying the recovery can’t last.

The Dow fell 249.85 points to 9,712.73, led by news of a drop in the mood of consumers. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 70.6 in October from 73.5 in September.

The Labor Department also reported Friday that personal income, which will drive a recovery by consumer spending, was flat in September compared with the previous month, although this was in line with expectations. A lack of income growth is due, in part, to ongoing high unemployment rates, also a major worry for the market.

Financials Decline
Financial stocks were among the day's biggest decliners. Shares of CIT Group Inc. dropped nearly 15 percent after the commercial lender said Carl Icahn, a major investor in the firm, agreed to support its restructuring plan and provide it with a $1 billion line of credit. CIT Shares dropped 14 cents to 81 cents.

Energy and basic materials producers also fell sharply as the dollar gained ground against other major currencies. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold prices slipped about $9 to $1,037 an ounce, and oil prices tumbled $2.85/BBL to $77.02.
Bond prices rallied as stocks fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.42 percent from 3.50 percent late Thursday.

Stocks have has a rough week, but finished the month slightly up from September’s close. Without stronger evidence that the labor market is improving, consumers are not going to feel comfortable about spending. Indications are investors will have trouble extending the market's massive rally into a ninth month. With this week's declines, the S&P 500 index is still up roughly 55 percent since hitting a 12-year low in early March.

Major Economic News Due this Coming Week
Analysts say trading is likely to remain volatile this coming week. There is a large quantity of major economic news coming this week. Two that will be closely watched are sales reports from major retailers and the Labor Department's October employment report — arguably the month's most important piece of economic data. The Fed will also convene for a two-day policy meeting beginning Tuesday.

There were eight losers for every winner on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 791.6 million shares, compared with 852.5 million at the same time a day earlier. Overseas, the averages were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei stock average rising, while European markets in Britain, France and Germany fell.

You Need Customers (and Profits) to Have a Business

Our 1 year Anniversary – The first “Meter” newsletter was published on October 6, 2008, so the one you’re reading now is Volume 2, Issue 1. We’re proud of the fact that we’ve received positive feedback and that you care enough to write us back with comments. We thank everyone for their interest and time. We’ll continue to adjust the format as we move forward.
Darcee and Ron

(This article was the feature in Volume 2 Issue 1 of Condevco's Meter Newsletter)

“You Need Customers (and Profits) to Have a Business”

Well, that seems like a pretty simple statement, doesn’t it? Whether you call it marketing, Sales, Advertising or Promotion, it all comes down to one thing. Getting people to become your customer (purchase from you), and getting them to come in more than once; in other words, customer loyalty and repetitive purchasing. How?

Just cutting price isn’t a competitive strategy

In terms of Convenience Retailing, that means putting customers inside the store. Hopefully they shop there more than one time. In terms of our jobber friends, that means adding dealers to your network, and making sure they want to renew at the end of the Fuel Supply Agreement. In terms of a Refiner/Marketer, that means adding and retaining jobbers, and on and on. But just getting customers by cutting price becomes a losing proposition in the long run, so there’s more to being a good competitor than being low priced.

A simple idea, but a complicated thing to do successfully. Here as we start our second year at the “Meter” we’ve talked about Customer service, we’ve spoken about respecting your customer, and in our two most commented on stories, we’ve spoken about Sprucing up your store and the Value Proposition to your customer. (The Articles are all included in this blog).

In the final analysis, it’s all about getting customers to keep your business going, and retaining them for the long run, whether you’re a multinational refiner or a single store operator. What is the customer looking for? And how do you become the person or business that fulfills that customer need?

Revenue alone isn’t an answer

Just pushing revenue through price cutting and aggressive promotion is NOT the answer to C-Store success. You need to keep margin preservation as a goal when you set your promotional calendar, otherwise, you’re trading dollars for no gain.

In the blog story on Burger King’s new restaurant design, (Article directly below) we discuss the fact that BK hasn’t been a heavy promoter of the “value menu” items, They have them, but BK has always competed on taste -“flame-broiled” and service-“Have it your way” as a primary message, with competitive pricing as a secondary factor. Just driving revenue for revenue’s sake is a feel-good tactic, but in the long run, doesn’t do you any good.

The Future

The NACS (National Association of Convenience Stores) show kicks off in Las Vegas today, where the merchandise and trends for the next year get rolled out. Oil prices are climbing again, and while we’re being told the economy is in recovery, it just isn’t feeling that way to most of us. It’s important to grow top-line revenues, but not at the expense of profit.

A more sophisticated foodservice offering and an emphasis on fresh items is the way to steadily grow revenues in a convenience setting now. Differentiate yourself from the pack in a smart and profitable way, and customers will keep your registers ringing. NPN had a nice article on Loyalty being more than just a Fuel Brand (Click to read) It’s time to think about how to make your business grow in a structured and profitable way. Id like to finish it off with the comment that standing pat is really dropping behind, because everyone else is trying to move ahead!

At Condevco, our business is helping convenience retailers and jobbers grow their business. We develop manuals and administer programs with your staff and provide analysis and input to allow your efforts to become targeted and productive. Contact us TODAY for more information on how we can help your business increase profitability.

New Burger King Restaurant Design Continues Competitive Differentiation

Article Headline / Source Burger King's New Restaurant Design (http://adage.com/globalnews/article/?article_id=139526)
Question With Burger King's (BKC) current sales trend weak and high stakes earnings call coming up at month's end, is the newly announced Burger King restaurant design viable? Is it likely to attain investment payback? Can the franchisees fund it with the tight credit conditions now underway?

This was originally done for Gerson Lehrman Group's News

1) Burger King isn't a big "Value Menu" player

2) Tries to differentiate itself through flavor and selection

3) Unit allows for more upscale uses that QSR's are taking on in recession

The new Burger King restaurant design makes sense and addresses the fact that the fast food “niche” is growing and handling more tasks for differing groups of consumers.

BK hasn’t really played hard in value price arena, so a “weak” sales trend may actually bode well for the bottom line. If they are selling more “standard price” menu items as a percentage than their competitors, is that really weakness?

The new 2020 design is a more upscale look, also showing a commitment to full price items and a different marketing sensibility. The “Whopper Bar” concept and the hi-tech Coca-Cola fountain introduction, if only for tests, shows burger King is looking at other places than a .99 price point to grow sales volumes moving forward. They have always competed on flavor as a prime driver to their marketing campaigns, this is a variant on quality differentiation.

Whether the franchisees can fund the new design build out in times of tight credit is probably the same answer it would be in good times: the strong franchisees can, the marginal ones can’t. You have to think that investment payback may be marginally longer to due to the increased cost of the unit’s build-out, but will the design alone increase sales? Probably not.

In terms of how QSR’s/fast food are being used differently by the consumer during the economic turndown, this could be a winner. Having a nicer, more pleasing looking unit to host fast business lunches or take the family out, instead of an Applebee’s or a TGI Fridays, since budgets are bit tight, cannot be bad.

Cutting Cost Shouldn’t Mean Cutting Service

Newsflash: Business Has Been Tough

Business has been tough for 12 to 18 months in the convenience store business. While Wall Street imploded just over a year ago, gasoline retailers and distributors had been riding a wild rise in supply cost caused by record high crude oil prices in July of 2008, only to followed by a very rapid drop in prices as the rest of the economy “fell off a cliff” to quote a pundit, reducing demand overnight. Volatility of supply costs pushed a lot of jobbers to the brink, and some went over the edge with the rest of the economy.

So, while our stores and chains were ahead of the curve in starting to feel the pain, we were right there with everyone else as consumer confidence shrank, and maintaining business became very, very tough. When the top-line revenues aren’t growing, but actually shrinking, but the expenses aren’t going down, the obvious place to look to get more benefit from the operation is to cut cost.

Cutting Cost Leads to Better Results

And, everybody looked to cut as much as they could and still stay in business as a viable competitor. Both stories underneath this, on Walgreens and Starbucks, are about cutting cost to keep the profits growing. Howard Schultz, the founder and CEO of Starbucks, was on CNBC this afternoon to tout the national rollout of the “Via” instant coffee product; but what he talked about the most was the cost cutting initiatives within the firm allowing them to keep profits near the levels that were expected. Walgreen Corp also attributed better than anticipated results to cutting cost.

“Abandoned Cart Syndrome”

That being said, about a week ago I read an interesting article on the supermarket sector, where they have been aggressive at reducing cost, as they compete in a very tight margin industry. There is more and more of what they are calling “Abandoned Cart Syndrome” where a customer who came in and shopped the store just leaves the full cart and walks out when they see the lines at the checkouts, lengthened by reduced labor allocations. So the question posed was, when does cutting cost become cutting service? And when does that impact your business negatively in the long run? Does that customer come back?

Well, in the case of a Convenience Store, we might not have abandoned carts, but we very well could have cut cost to the point that we have abandoned sites. Customers who came in, and you were out of stock on the need, or they had to wait in line 3-4 minutes to buy a single item. Take a good hard look as you pare those costs, and make sure it’s not service that’s suffering.

Walgreen’s Beats Forecast, Shares rise

Drugstore operator Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) said prescription drug sales rose in the fiscal fourth quarter, pushing the company's results past Wall Street expectations and lifting shares to an annual high. Shares rose on trading today to close at $37.35, a $3.16 per share rise today, putting the stock price 9.24% higher.

Cost Cutting results in Profits

The Deerfield, Ill., company said its "Rewiring for Growth" expense savings plan started to pay off during the quarter, and also indicated the effects of the recession may be easing. Walgreen shares climbed to an annual high on the results.
For the quarter ended Aug. 31, Walgreen's profit fell 2 percent, to $436 million, or 44 cents per share, down from profit of $443 million, or 45 cents per share, a year prior. Revenue rose 8 percent to $15.7 billion from $14.6 billion.

These latest per-share results attribute 7 cents per share in savings from Rewiring for Growth, offset by 3 cents in costs. Analyst’s consensus forecast profit of 39 cents per share on revenue of $15.68 billion.

Walgreen’s said same-store sales, or sales at stores open for more than a year, rose 2.4 percent. Walgreen opened its 7,000th store in September and currently runs 7,042 drugstores, a few dozen more than main competitor CVS Caremark.

Same Store Sales Rise

Same-pharmacy sales rose 4.5 percent in stores open at least a year, while same-store sales of the "front end", or non-pharmacy items, fell 1.4 percent. The company filled 9 percent more prescriptions than it had a year ago. Even though consumers are actively looking for ways to save, Walgreen’s said fewer customers are skipping medications or stretching the terms of their prescriptions.

Walgreen’s also said that patients who receive 90-day orders of prescription drugs through the mail will now be able to pick up their orders at local Walgreen’s pharmacies, matching the features of the CVS program.

For the full reporting year, Walgreen’s earned $2 billion, or $2.02 per share, down from profit of $2.16 billion, or $2.17 per share, in 2008. Revenue rose to $63.34 billion from $59.03 billion. Walgreen’s expects store growth of 4.5 percent to 5 percent in fiscal 2010, which would give it more than 7,300 stores.

The company stated it is looking to save money by cutting back on store openings and carrying fewer products in inventory. They are going to boost sales by improving the layout of its stores in another new initiative.

Starbucks Rolling Out it’s Instant Coffee Nationwide Today

Eight months after Starbucks Corp. began selling its “Via” brand instant coffee, testing it in Seattle and Chicago, today Starbucks will begin a nationwide rollout, offering the instant coffee drink to the rest of the country and in its Canadian stores.

Starbuck’s is running company's first-ever television ads, and also distributing to roughly 1,500 sites outside its stores; this effort for the Via launch shows just how much Starbucks wants to own a stake in the $21 billion worldwide instant coffee market.

"Based on the success we've had, we feel strongly that we're sitting on a very big opportunity," said Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz said during a conference call with journalists. "What's going to sell Via at the end of the day is that (it) delivers in the cup. Most people will not be able to tell the difference."

Instant coffee is popular in Europe, and through the rest of the world — instant brands account for as much as 80 percent of coffee sales in the U.K., here in the US, instant coffee has not won over coffee drinking Americans. Instant is generally viewed as an inferior product here in the US, a knock-off of drip-brewed beverages.

Starbucks executives want that image to change. They are hoping, and betting on, with this high visibility rollout, that the skinny cylindrical 3-packs and 12-packs of coffee that dissolve in water will eventually be as popular with consumers as its packaged coffee is now. The coffee is available in two flavors now, and Starbucks expects to introduce more varieties in the future.

Starbucks is getting together diverse vendors like outdoors store chain REI and office supply chain Office Depot Inc., hoping it will help the company get the product in hands of new customers. Via also will be sold inside general retailers like Costco and Target. The effort to find new customers is also taking to the air, where passengers onboard certain United flights on Tuesday will be able to sample the drinks. United will sell Via packages onboard later in the year.

Next year, Via will appear on grocery store shelves, already a strong market for Starbucks pre-packaged conventional coffees. Introducing Via in such a high-profile way comes at a particularly tough time for Starbucks. Due to the recession and consumer spending cutbacks, Starbuck’s has seen its revenue slide for the last three consecutive quarters, and profits have fallen in five out of the past six quarters. It could use a big new hit product, maybe Via could provide that “Buzz” to get the chain rolling again.

“The Value Proposition – What it means in Convenience Retailing”

In the field of marketing, a customer value proposition consists of the total of benefits which a chain or store owner promises that a customer will receive in return for the customer's business (or other value-transfer- time, loyalty, brand allegiance).

Put simply, the value proposition is what the customer gets (or your store provides) for their money and time. This statement should convince a potential consumer that one particular product or service will add more value or better solve a problem than other similar offerings. “in ten words or less, why should people be YOUR customer”
Accordingly, a customer can evaluate a company's value-proposition on two broad dimensions, with multiple subsets:

1. relative performance: what the customer gets from the vendor relative to a competitor's offering; How much better is your location than your competitors?

2. Price: which consists of the payment the customer makes to acquire the product or service, since most C-Store items aren’t unique to the location, this is a driver.

The company or Store’s marketing and sales efforts offer a customer value proposition; the Store’s delivery and customer-service processes then need to fulfill that value-proposition, in order to make the customer happy.

How to use developing a Value Proposition as a marketing tool

A value-proposition approach can assist in a firm's marketing strategy, and may guide a retailer to target a particular market segment. Typically, there are three elements that should always be in a value proposition: Convince (who’s our customer?), that (what you want them to believe), because (why they SHOULD believe it). This framework will structure your value proposition in a cohesive manner that makes sense internally and externally
A company should always have the value-proposition of increasing its market share and growing revenue by:
1. providing superior customer service – self explanatory
2. product differentiation – Colder coolers, cleaner store, fresher products
3. operational efficiency – making it look effortless
Strategic analysis and planning for value proposition marketing should contain at least five elements:
1. Your current situation (including problems, causes and effects – need to be honest)
2. target situation – what you would like to achieve
3. How long to reach the target situation – when do you need the new results
4. cost of reaching the target situation and opportunity cost analysis – need to be honest again – a plan you can’t afford doesn’t do you any good
5. the benefits of both the targeting and the achievement phases – what do you (and importantly your team) get for the all the planning and work?

Developing Your Value Proposition

It's important when developing your value proposition that it be clear and concise. It's best to start by brainstorming and focusing on what needs your target customer group have in common. This can be done by some simple market research in your stores. What does your current traffic want that your business can provide? What is important to them?

Once you've found the common denominating need, you can determine what it is that they are in search of in addition to your current lineup and develop your value proposition around that need. If you find a great unmet need, think about adding that product or service to your line-up, and letting people know about it.
Keep in mind that the purpose of your value proposition is to identify and satisfy an unmet or under-met need that your target market possesses.
Why is the development of your value proposition important?

The answer to that question is easy. Your value proposition can equip you with the following benefits to your business:

• Create a strong differential between you and your competitors
• Increase not only the quantity but the quality of your in-store traffic
• Gain market share in your targeted segments
• Assist you in merchandising and store layout that will increase business.
• Improve your operation efficiency

You can get started developing your store’s value proposition today. Just remember that an effective value proposition describes what you do in terms of tangible business results. It draws interest and shares a customer benefit within a few words.